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Closing Remarks by
Sean Cleary, Founder and Executive Vice Chair of The Future
World Foundation, Strategy Adviser to the World Economic
Forum, South Africa
At The Doha Forum XII
20 MAY 2012
This is a remarkable time - indeed it is a time of crisis
----
- In Europe, for all the obvious reasons: the conversion in
2009 of a banking crisis that had originated in the USA,
into a sovereign debt crisis in Europe; the fact that the
EuroZone is not an optimal currency area (divergent economic
structures, poor labour mobility, and no mechanism for
fiscal transfers); the immediate crisis in Greece, and that
in waiting in Portugal; inadequate financial firewalls to
prevent contagion to Spain and Italy; poorly capitalised
banks; and the inevitable asynchrony between instantaneous
market reactions, accelerated by algorithmic trading; and
the necessity for political consultation when EU heads of
government seek to amend rules and reinterpret the spirit of
community agreements.
- In the West more broadly - where assumptions of shared
values and collective interests built up since 1945, have
been tested, over more than a decade, by deep disagreements
over Iraq, and before that, by what Robert Kagan called the
divergence of Kantian and Hobbsian world views; and where
the unifying ethos of shared democracy has been stressed,
over three decades, by Anglo-Saxon emphasis on increasingly
"free" and global markets; and the impact of these on
continental European traditions of social democracy, many of
which may not be affordable by an aging society in a
globally competitive economy;
- In Russia, where corruption has penetrated the social
fabric, and commodity exports no longer sustain rapid
growth, and popular dissent id evident on the streets;
- In China, where a new generation of leadership must
grapple with the challenges of adapting economic structures
and political style, in the context of rapid social change,
and new assumptions' about the workings of the global
economy.
- In Japan, still reeling from the shock of Fukushima
Daichi, just months after being pushed from the no. 2 spot
in the global economy by a fast-rising China;
- And, of course, in the Arab region - from the Gulf and the
Arabian Peninsula through the Mashriq, to the Maghreb...the
focus of our discussions...
The Hanzi ideogram for crisis denotes both threat and
opportunity - an nowhere is crisis in that bivalent sense
more apparent than in the Middle East today.
In offering these observations, I must recall the sage and
cautionary remarks of Rory Stewart in the session on
Democracy: The Challenges of the Arab Spring. Westerners, he
said, evidenced both hypocrisy and a dangerous lack of
comprehension in dealing with this region. He attributed
this to a penchant for abstraction, a measure of isolation
from reality, and a tendency towards irrational optimism.
His suggestion that future policy towards the Middle East -
and one suspects elsewhere in the neighbourhood - should be
leavened by an understanding that the West currently lacks
power, relevant knowledge and legitimacy, was also salient.
But my task is to offer a summary perspective, so here you
have it!
- Economic growth coupled with political stagnation and
social exclusion in the Maghreb and Maehriq; weak and often
inappropriate education coupled with rising youth
unemployment; the nexus of social discontent and social
media, all combined to trigger revolts by a panoply of
discontented groups against the status quo.
- Secular youth activists, educated women, members of the
Muslim Brotherhood, salafists, economically disadvantaged
shi'ties, rival tribes, shopkeepers and the unemployed,
briefly, even ephemerally, found common cause in opposition!
- But the deep fissures in society - between persons whose
identity is chiefly secular and those who define themselves
primarily in submission to Allah; between sunni and shi'a in
Bahrain and elsewhere; Muslims and Copts in Egypt; between
different Libyan clans jockeying for power; between
traditionalist and modernists, and between elites and the
masses in all societies - are still unresolved. And that is
not to speak of the still unfolding tragedy that is Syria,
threatening to spill over in Lebanon! The dangerous conflict
in Yemen, and the risk of renewed clashes between Sudan and
South Sudan, are further sources of concern.
- As Abdullah Toukan reminded us in the session on Future
Trends in the Region, it serves no purpose to speak of the
Arab world, and still less, the Middle East, as though it
was a singular entity.
- Perceived and factional and national interests, and the
clash of revolutionary and conservative ideologies that
define the region, also across the Gulf in Iran and in Iraq,
pose another layer of challenges - not least for the
Government of Qatar, our hosts at this Forum.
- The failure to bring to a just pragmatic solution the
deeply debilitating and destructive conflict between Israel
and the Palestinians; and to end the occupation, by the
establishment of two states, each the homeland of its own
people, hovers like a spectre above all this.
- Israel's national self-interest, as well as the interests
of all in the Middle East, demand a just and stable
settlement. As we were reminded on many occasions throughout
the conference, from the opening address by His Highness the
Emir, through sessions on The Future of Peace and The Arab
Peace Initiative adopted by two Summits of the Arab League
in 2002 and 2007, and the new, private-sector Israeli Peace
Initiative, to Senator George Mitchell's special remarks,
the parameters of settlement are clear, and have been
restated many times. What is needed is the political will to
implement them.
- While Marwan Muasher was deeply, though it seemed,
reluctantly, pessimistic that the coalition between Likud
and Kadima would prompt the government of Israel to
re-engage seriously, George Mitchell reminded us that, as
conflicts are made and sustained by men, men can, and must,
end them.
- The threat posed by inaction in the face of these
challenges, was highlighted by Abdullah Toukan in his
description of the layered risks that confront us if we do
not seize the opportunity to address them:
- The essential political and macro-economic governance
reforms required throughout the region
- The need to bring the Syrian crisis to an end
- The unresolved crisis around Israel and the Palestinians
- The cascade of risks that attend on mishandling of the
calculated ambiguities and resulting uncertainties about
Iran's nuclear intentions - on which it appears, there has
been some progress during the visit to Tehran this week of
IAEA Director-General Yukia Amano
- …all intensified by the European financial crisis.
The areas of political and macro-economic governance deserve
attention:
As many speakers observed, democracy cannot be reduced to
the holding of elections. Both Tunisia and Egypt have held
free elections - as has Yemen, although there was only one
candidate for the Presidency. Egypt's presidential elections
start tomorrow and will take place over the next few weeks
--
But elections are only a small part of vibrant democratic
systems -
- respect for the rule of law,
- equality before the law,
- separation of the executive, legislative and judicial
powers, and
- equal economic and political access for all citizens
are all essential parts of the political culture that allows
for effective political expression by free and empowered
citizens.
Experience teaches that it is difficult to build and sustain
this culture unless the polity has:
- effective institutions (political parties, government
Ministries, and courts that are both efficient and enjoy
widespread legitimacy),
- a growing economy,
- a substantial middle class; and
- a healthy civil society.
Building all this takes time - and, as Khaled Abdullah
Jenahi observed, the process will probably be both
protracted, and messy - but if Arab societies do not build
these key elements for success, elections will not bring
reform - no matter who emerges victorious - and risk
producing a crisis of failed expectations.
Likewise, as many speakers reminded us n the excellent
sessions on Development and Economy and Free Trade, the
latter elegantly steered by Talal Abu Ghazala, there are few
secrets about what is needed to place a country on a
sustainable path to economic and social development.
To enable development, a government must
- ensure the safety of its citizens and foreign investors
- manage a growing economy with prudent fiscal and monetary
policies, and
- deliver the public goods needed to promote domestic social
equity, and build a globally competitive workforce.
- Political, macro-economic, monetary and corporate
governance frame the context within which takes place;
- Effective public health care and education build the human
capital to sustain it;
- Efficient water, power, transport and ICT infrastructures
underpin economic growth;
- To enable growth, governments must create environments
that facilitate domestic and foreign investment, and
appropriate public-private partnerships to enable it
- None of this is possible unless the country has, and
continues to improve, the [appropriate] institutional
capacity.
It goes without saying that corruption, in both public and
private sectors, is antithetical to good governance, and
sustainable development.
As we were reminded in the panel on Future Economic Visions,
coordinated by Abdulwahab Alkebesi, and the workshop on
Creating Jobs, employment and economic opportunity are
especially critical: We all know that some 51 million jobs
are needed by 2020, and 100 million a decade later. No-one
knows how to create opportunities for work on anything like
that scale. Meanwhile, it is common cause, as speakers in
many different session noted, that the revolts of 2010 and
2011 were due to the rising frustration of a fast growing
number of young people who were denied both economic
opportunity, and political voice. The call for dignity had
social, political and economic dimensions.
A future crisis can only be avoided by scaling up investment
urgently in both entrepreneurship opportunities - not least
in the knowledge economy - and vocational training - in
technical construction, civil engineering, and manufacturing
skills, and in hospitality services. This will leverage
existing demand for skills in these areas, and allow Arab
youth to get access to jobs presently filled by South and
South East Asian workers. The region's leading employers
might band together to fund and enable such a programme.
In conclusion, let's remember that here was nothing we did
not know about the conditions that gave rise to the
explosion in 2010 and 2011. Between 2002 and 2005, a
first-rate team of Arab scholars contracted by the UNDP,
issued a series of key Arab Human Development Reports:
- Creating Opportunities for Future Generations (AHDR 2002):
The conclusion was that development in the Arab region was
not due to a lack of resources but to deficiencies in
freedom, knowledge and the integration of women.
- These key deficiencies became the subjects of the next
three reports:
- Building a Knowledge Society (AHDR 2003);
- Towards Freedom in Arab Society (AHDR 2004); and
- Empowerment of Arab Women (AHDR 2005)
- The World Bank, under the guidance of its Chief Economist
for the region, now Governor of Tunisia's Central Bank,
published the following reports in the same period:
- An “integrative” report entitled:
Jobs, Growth, and Governance in the Middle East and North
Africa: Unlocking the Potential For Prosperity (2003);
followed by -
- Trade, Investment, and Development in the Middle East and
North Africa: Engaging the World (2003);
- Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and
North Africa: Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability
(2003);
- Gender and Development in the Middle East and North
Africa: Women in the Public Sphere (2004); and
- Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and
North Africa: Towards a New Social Contract (2004).
- The World Economic Forum likewise produced two Arab
Competitiveness Reports in the same period, highlighting
similar challenges.
The challenge that the Arab Region faces today is to muster
the political will to act urgently and consistently to do,
what all now know, needs to be done.
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